Advocates for Route 29 Flash in Montgomery County urge all lines adopt dedicated lanes for success

This is Part III of a three-part series on Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in Montgomery County. Read Part I and Part II.

East Montgomery County, along route 29, waited some 40 years for a promised transit line. The Flash bus rapid transit (BRT) plan therefore gave Route 29 priority “to deal with racial equity issues,” said County Executive Marc Elrich, “because this is a part of the county that’s basically stranded from jobs and is stuck in immiserating traffic.”

The corridor finally got some relief in 2020, when the first Flash bus rapid transit (BRT) line, opened. However, transit advocates believe the route is too limited, with dedicated lanes only on the northern 40%, and they are on the shoulders rather than the median lanes, which is the BRT standard. A plan to improve the line is currently the subject of some contention.

Montgomery County Department of Transportation (MCDOT) officials attribute the route’s current shortcoming to finances. “We initially planned to do more with Route 29,” including more dedicated lanes, said Joana Conklin, Bus Rapid Transit Program Manager, Montgomery County Department of General Services. MCDOT applied for a federal TIGER grant, asking for $30 or $40 million, but only received $10 million, so they decided to do a first phase with the funding available.

Sebestian Smoot of Better BRT, however, questioned whether putting in a BRT plan without fully dedicated lanes is the best idea: “If Montgomery County keeps putting in these half-baked BRT projects … and those buses are getting stuck in traffic, I’d rather there not be a BRT project.”

The county does have long-term plans for upgrading Route 29 BRT. While the initial vision of the BRT network was for dedicated lanes as much as possible, a 2020 MCDOT study found that managed lanes along the most-used, southern portion of the route would be fastest for buses, cars, and for total number of people moved.

If adopted, managed lanes means that buses would share the lane with multi-passenger cars. Whether this option, employing the latest technology and strong enforcement, is really best depends on the validity of projections about how many HOV cars the managed lanes would draw and how many people would choose BRT on managed lanes versus fully dedicated lanes. Answering if, and under what conditions, managed lanes work better than dedicated lanes has major implications for future plans.

A Better BRT?

Dissatisfied with the initial version of Route 29 Flash, in 2018 Smoot, along with fellow East County resident Sean Emerson, drew up a Better BRT plan that included dedicated lanes for buses along the entire route, at times in a single, reversible lane to go with the flow of traffic in mornings and evenings, but elsewhere with lanes in both directions. The plan would have fit these lanes in by narrowing car lanes from 11 or 12 feet to 10 feet, which aligns with Vision Zero calls for safe street design, since narrower lanes result in fewer traffic deaths. Median dedicated lanes are also considered the gold standard for BRT since they prevent conflict with other turning vehicles. Furthermore, the Better BRT plan is in accord with Elrich’s original vision, which includes dedicated lanes for buses along most of the BRT network, often in single, reversible lanes.

In 2020, the US 29 Mobility and Reliability Study Technical Report showed far better results for managed lanes than the Better BRT plan for two key reasons. Additional lights would be needed to allow cars to turn left across the median lanes, which would “result in increased signal delay along the corridor.” Taking away a lane of traffic in the key Four Corners segment was also found to slow traffic: “the elimination of the 4th travel lane reduces vehicle throughput and queue storage, which results in northbound congestion from Four Corners spilling back into downtown Silver Spring during PM peak period,” and a similar backup southbound “in the AM peak period.”

The 2020 report projects that, in 2025, the Better BRT plan would result in 17 failing intersections and 21 segments with failing levels of service, versus 7 failing intersections with managed lanes alternative and 15 failing segments. Overall, the report concludes, the managed lane alternative “provides faster bus travel times in both peak directions.”

In comments to the county council responding to the 2020 report, and in an interview with me, Smoot raised a number of objections to these conclusions. “The assumptions used in the report unfairly benefited a HOV managed lane as opposed to a bus only lane,” he told me. “Even the county council itself [was] concerned about the structure and assumptions of the study.”

Smoot argued that the modeling did not account for a likely increase of BRT use if it has dedicated lanes and becomes faster than driving and that the amount of carpooling predicted by the model, 25% of all users at peak hours, is much greater than what has historically happened. Smoot added that a 2019 MWCOG study showed only a 3% carpool and van pool mode share on US 29 compared to MCDOT claims of 15% of commuters. The COG estimate was based on a regional survey of commuters only, while the MCDOT number was based on a windshield survey of all cars, Pitts told me.

Smoot further argued that temporary closures on Route 29 have not led to the traffic levels predicted by the model, and asked for “a low-cost, short-term pilot to validate or refute the predicted impact of reconfiguring US 29 at University Boulevard.” Finally, Smoot argued that single-occupant cars would routinely violate the HOV lanes on a road in which enforcement is difficult.

Elrich also questioned the 2020 report’s conclusions: “I don’t think they looked at it in a very balanced way. It was hard for me to believe I could put everything in the existing lanes and it would be better than if I just was running buses down the middle.”

Unsatisfied with the initial findings, the county council asked for additional study of median lanes. In an email, Pitts told me “Preliminary results are out and show that,” relative to doing nothing, “travel times for passenger vehicles and the BRT would improve under the Managed Lane scenario.” Smoot expressed approval of the new study: “They made it a lot more fair.” He explained that the new study is more realistic about mode shift than the 2020 version.

The results were further reported in an October 6 virtual meeting and presentation; they look better for median bus lanes than the 2020 report, but still show the best results for managed lanes, particularly regarding the speed of car trips.

According to the new projections, PM northbound traffic would take cars 40 minutes in the median dedicated lane option versus under 30 minutes in the managed lane option. Meanwhile, Flash service would take just under 25 minutes for buses in the managed lanes option and slightly more with a dedicated median bus lane. The results are similar, although slightly worse for median bus lanes, in the southbound AM direction.

What does the future hold for Route 29?

While the new results still seem to favor managed lanes, Smoot, who works in modelling, explained that “models are not a crystal ball,” but one of several predictive tools. In the real world, there are still many choices to be made and behavioral assumptions that may or may not prove accurate.

One caveat is that the Better BRT plan recommended shrinking car lanes to 10 or 11 feet, but the new study did not do so. Officials at the meeting explained that this is because state and federal guidelines do not allow such narrowing on roads with such high-speed traffic, although it is possible to ask for a waiver. Officials also believe that, with modern technology and strict enforcement, cars with single drivers will not routinely encroach on bus lanes.

The new study does not necessarily mean managed lanes will be the option selected. “No decision has been made regarding the advancement of managed lanes along US 29,” said Pitts. Whether Route 29 ultimately adapts full dedicated lanes, managed lanes, or neither is a political process that will play out in coming months.