Georgia Avenue bus lanes by BeyondDC licensed under Creative Commons.

When we inhale the autumn air this year, will it smell of pumpkin spice, fresh pencil shavings, and wood-burning fires, or the fumes from car tailpipes? Despite the unclear threat from COVID-19 variants, thanks to this year’s vaccine roll-out most of us expect a gradual return to on-site work and schooling. But how are we going to reach those places?

It’s an important question for the future of the region. Whether folks take transit, walk, roll, drive, take ride hailing services, or just don’t return physically to the same places they used to is closely tied with equity, livability, environmental quality and economic growth.

But it’s not a force majeure that our future mobility will be car-based, even in the short term. No driving deity will whip away people’s Metro cards and hand them a set of car keys. Policymakers and transportation authorities have tools at their disposal to ensure that transit, bike, and sidewalks meet people’s evolving needs.

Two roads diverge. Which will we take?

A lot of travelers project a preference for single-occupancy vehicles and working from home over transit once restrictions are lifted, with many also predicting or hoping to work from home at least part-time. This is likely down to some hard-to-parse mix of COVID-19 risk avoidance and uncertainty over Metro service levels, along with time freed up by home-based work.

But roads filled with cars means they need space; space better used for dedicated lanes to ensure that traveling by bus and bicycle is a safe, efficient choice for residents, workers, and students. It also takes away space we need for freight and other deliveries to reach businesses, and avoid losing valuable time and polluting the air while stuck in traffic.

More drivers also need more places to park; space better used for the pickup-dropoff zones (PUDOs), streateries, and outdoor retail that have been essential to the survival of local businesses and will likely be for some time, along with expanded sidewalks needed for safe social distancing. DC Mayor Muriel Bowser and the District Department of Transportation (DDOT) have leaned into these innovations during the emergency period, and business leaders say they’ve proven their value.

But what if concerns around safety – whether from COVID-19 or from being a cyclist or pedestrian at the whim of unsafe drivers who have only increased in the past year – changes the personal risk calculation for enough people that single-occupancy vehicles seem like the only safe choice…for those able to choose?

Carmageddon, in which those who can overwhelmingly choose to drive instead of taking sustainable modes, could choke the region’s economic recovery, and exacerbate health inequalities and environmental issues. If we’re serious about building back a DC that values equity, we can’t afford to let the recovery be driven by those of us who can afford to drive. (If the thought of cars choking up our public space in the long term gives you nightmares too, take a look at DDOT’s MoveDC survey.)

A panoply of studies show that people using bikes, transit or walking to reach business destinations generate more business when they get there. Furthermore, for businesses to come back they need workers, and workers often rely on transit. For this reason, DC’s investments in bus lanes, including the start of construction this week on the long-planned and longest bus lanes on 16th St, make a lot of sense to expand upon.

The economic benefits of creating more spaces for walking, cycling and transit are a key reason why business leaders often support policies that address the needs of transit users, cyclists and pedestrians, such as London’s congestion charge.

A glut of cars would result in consequences beyond economy-stifling congestion. Poor air quality is associated with health conditions known to exacerbate COVID-19 and other health risks like asthma, which are more prevalent in communities of color. Given uneven vaccine uptake, Black and Brown communities may be at higher risk of not just COVID-19 but wider disparities in chronic conditions for some time. Carmageddon is a personal luxury at societal cost, when we can least afford it.

A recent Council of Governments survey points to a different future, one also called for by advocates, civic leaders and business groups: a strong desire for leaders to take this opportunity to lean into important local and regional investments around bus lanes, protected bike lanes and expanded sidewalks. Notably, the same survey found that demand for bus services will likely be less elastic than demand for rail in the post-pandemic period, which makes sense because bus riders tend to have lower incomes than rail riders and likely fewer alternatives. To restore opportunities for lower-income workers that were taken away by the pandemic, it’s essential to ensure that bus services are able to meet riders’ needs with reliable, fast, convenient and affordable service.

Transit is as safe if not safer than office environments, with trips of around 30-45 minutes in duration as opposed to several hours. Transit riders are more likely to keep masks on for their ride if there’s an explicit mask requirement and to avoid speaking. The opposite is expected in work environments. When it’s safe to return to the office, it will be as safe or safer to take transit.

The Mayor’s ReOpen DC report from spring 2020 explicitly emphasized the need to prioritize transit, walkable spaces and outdoor commercial, recreational and social opportunities. What’s the vision for how these will play out as we move into a sustained recovery phase with important social goals around equity?

Van Ness-UDC Metro station by Maryland Nomadic licensed under Creative Commons.

Leaders have the tools to shape a better future. Will they use them?

The return to work, recreation, and schooling outside the home can be transit- and active-transportation led, as many other cities such as London and Paris are planning for right now. These aren’t academic discussions. The Council of Governments’ Transportation Planning Board met on March 17 to make key decisions about the region’s long-range transportation plan. Those could reflect the long-held regional priority to cut greenhouse gas emissions and develop transit-accessible housing or they could retrench car priority and indeed dependency for decades to come. DC’s Council is convening a roundtable in late March to discuss the post-pandemic transportation system and what it should look like. Washington, DC could be a leader among American cities and regions in placing mobility at the center of an equitable recovery.

Policymakers and transit authorities can make choices now that ensure people are able to fulfil their mobility needs without single-occupancy cars. The billions of dollars allocated by Congress’ latest stimulus package to Washington-area governments makes it easier to make investments now to pay off for decades to come.

  • Restore transit service to pre-pandemic levels to lower the risk of crowding;
  • Use the low-traffic time now to lean into building more bus and bike lanes;
  • Repurpose as much parking as possible for more economically productive purposes like PUDOs, streateries, and parklets where restaurants and retail can conduct outdoor dining and sales;
  • Enforce driving and parking restrictions for bus and bike lanes and PUDOs to get the most out of these investments, and explore automated enforcement approaches;
  • Explore lowering the cost of transit;
  • Incentivize shared bike usage and bike ownership by building more micromobility corrals and bike racks, and consider subsidies for bike purchase;
  • Electrify the Circulator and WMATA’s bus fleet to improve air quality;
  • Explore demand-adjustment policies like parking pilots and/or a congestion charge, to rebalance the “subsidy” that drivers already receive to undertake a less-than-socially-optimal practice.

The Department for Public Works recent return to some enforcement was a welcome indicator that “safety-critical” transgressions will now carry some clear disincentive. But there’s no time to lose to ensure that investments like bus lanes - not included in DPW’s current enforcement efforts - actually function.

Conversely, policy could pull away some of the gains we’ve made in using public space for greater public good than the private benefits of drivers. If leaders can’t put forward a compelling vision for what future transportation should look like, the loudest voices may win out instead of intentional choices. We know from experience those voices often call for preserving parking at all costs.

Scooting, biking and walking through Lafayette Park. Image by Joe Flood licensed under Creative Commons.

A chance to lead the nation’s cities in post-pandemic mobility

Policymakers and our municipal agency leaders refer often to the need for an equitable recovery, but that future requires vision and sustained investment in actions that will bring it about. The route we were on pre-pandemic had a lot to recommend it, but it had weaknesses when it came to equity and sustainability. We now have an opportunity to address that using mobility as both a goal and a series of tools, prioritizing shared growth and environmental sustainability over the entrenched and reactionary, car-centric approaches of the past.

As real as the pandemic still is, the time for short-term fire-fighting in our policy decisions is drawing to a close. DC and regional leaders need to focus now on the transportation system that’s going to generate progress toward growth, equity and environmental goals, which will only become more pressing in the post-pandemic era.

Caitlin Rogger is deputy executive director at Greater Greater Washington. Broadly interested in structural determinants of social, economic, and political outcomes in urban settings, she worked in public health prior to joining GGWash. She lives in Capitol Hill.