Giving away Arlington and Alexandria won’t help Dave LaRock

Virginia Delegate Dave LaRock (R-Loudoun) made headlines when he suggested returning portions of Arlington and Alexandria back to the District of Columbia. Even if this idea were to gain any serious traction with other legislators, it would not help LaRock or Republicans in Virginia hold on to a majority in the legislature. There are two recent maps that explain why.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. This is not a serious proposal from LaRock. He’s just lashing out over recent political stings that have suddenly put him and his party in the minority in Richmond. He’s not interested in aligning regions with their natural economic centers that exist outside of arbitrary state-level borders and boundaries. He’s not interested in giving Washington DC a stronger case for why they should have voting rights.

For LaRock it’s just a way to dehumanize his political opponents. By casting residents of Arlington and Alexandria as not “real Virginians”, he’s trying to convince people his ideas are right even if they aren’t persuasive at the ballot box on the state level. It’s not a new dynamic but LaRock is notable for speaking more plainly than usual when it comes to the tensions that exist between metropolitan regions of Virginia and more rural ones. Cultural differences exist but the real problems stem from growing economic inequality especially as jobs and income are concentrated in a few large metropolitan regions instead of evenly throughout the state.

But it’s worth noting that even if LaRock got what he asked for tomorrow it wouldn’t guarantee the results he’d want to see. Let’s look at those maps.

Members in the Virginia House of Delegates serve two year terms with elections being held in odd-numbered years. 2017 was notable because it was the first major set of elections after Donald Trump was elected President. In 2016 the idea of Virginia being a battleground state was on the ropes after the state reliably voted for Hilary Clinton. But she had popular Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate. Would that enthusiasm persist without a major name on the ticket?

Turns out the answer was yes. In 2017, 13 elections saw seats change from Republican to Democrat. It was a huge swing that almost gave the Democratic party the majority except for a bizarre race where the election actually resulted in a tie and the resulting coin toss kept the seat in Republican control. That kept the Virginia House of Delegates at a 51-49 split between Republicans and Democrats. The following map from Ballotpedia shows the districts where those seats flipped.

Two years later in the middle of the campaign season, a man walked into the Virginia Beach Municipal Center and shot 16 people, killing 12. In response, Governor Ralph Northam convened a special session of the Virginia Legislature to see if now there could be any compromise gun control measures considered in the wake of this latest shooting. Republican leadership opened the special session only to immediately close it and go home. This was a clear signal Republicans in Virginia were not interested in any compromise on gun control.

That had an effect on races that fall. Six more seats flipped. Again all from Republicans to Democrats. A number of key races hinged on candidates who promised to do something on gun control versus those who wanted to keep or even loosen the current restrictions. A map of the districts that flipped is below, again from Ballotpedia.

Note where the flipped districts are. All of them are in suburban and exurban communities. In 2019 the majority of flipped districts were in the Hampton Roads area, about as far from Arlington and Alexandria as you can get. Arlington and Alexandria are safe seats for any candidate in the Democratic Party but that’s exactly why LaRock’s idea wouldn’t turn back the clock to a time when Republicans ruled in Richmond.

And it’s not all demographic changes that account for the flipped seats. It does go back to the issues. Several races hinged on gun control which despite lots of counties voting to make themselves second amendment sanctuaries it was the fact that more people voted for politicians who promised to do something about this country’s unique problems with mass shootings.

But other issues mattered as well. Lee Carter, an avowed Socialist who represents Manassas made improving public transportation a key part of his campaign in a town struggling to keep up with the rapid growth in and around Prince William County. Fixing traffic on Route 28 was the drumbeat Del. Danica Roem (D) used to win her seat even as her win was notable for being a trans woman elected over Bob Marshall who was notable for his anti-LGBT positions.

Which ultimately shows how much all Virginians have in common no matter where they live. Traffic, the cost of housing, access to jobs, and education are all issues at the forefront of every Virginian’s mind even if the specifics vary from place to place. For politicians like LaRock who find themselves suddenly in the minority, they’d be better off grappling with the real reasons for why their party lost rather than pretend Virginia’s metropolitan areas are utterly foreign.