Map of proposed Bus Rapid Transit network from NVTA's TransAction proposal. Image by author using data from NVTA's TransAction Plan. 

The authority that governs regional transportation for Northern Virginia has released a proposal that includes 370 miles of high-capacity transit across the region. This network would transform Greater Washington: it would make everyday travel more sustainable, more equitable, safer, and more economically productive for most of Northern Virginia.

Yet the same document also includes plans for a thousand new lane-miles of new and widened highways, an investment incompatible not only with the rapid transit system but also with the stated values of the planning authority.

Here’s a snapshot of the plan and what we know so far.

In drawing this map I have assumed that the unspecified ‘high capacity transit’ in the TransAction plan will be BRT; I have combined some lines, extended some into DC, and suggested names based on geography; I have omitted some lines, especially on Langston Blvd and Glebe Road in Arlington, because those roads are too narrow to accommodate full BRT.

A bold but contradictory plan

The Northern Virginia Transportation Authority (NVTA) is responsible for setting transportation policies and priorities throughout the region. It has recently released a draft of its main long-range plan, TransAction, for public comment. TransAction is ‘not fiscally constrained’, meaning it may contain more projects than the NVTA will be able to fund.

This draft includes the most ambitious transportation plan currently on offer in Greater Washington. The NVTA proposes investing up to $45 billion over the next 25 years in a network of rapid transit, most likely bus rapid transit: BRT uses extra-large buses on physically-separated lanes to provide the same quality of service as Metro rail for a small fraction of the cost.

This proposal—if it isn’t watered down into ‘enhanced bus’ service lacking the dedicated lanes—would transform our region. It would complement Metro and VRE, tying together the area from Leesburg to Woodbridge so that most residents wouldn’t need a car. We could concentrate growth around the new rapid transit lines, providing enough new homes to relieve the housing crisis while relieving the pressure on exurban sprawl.

TransAction has bold goals, but it is a self-contradicting plan. In addition to BRT, it allocates up to $29 billion for over 1,000 new lane-miles of highways that will draw people away from transit. These widenings, interchanges, and bypasses will induceVirginians to drive an estimated 6 billion more miles every year, emitting at least twenty, and up to eighty, million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent greenhouse gases between now and 2030. This would be new traffic, not just reroutings. On the high end, that’s the same emissions as operating a new full-capacity coal-fired power plant. Car travel is the most dangerous motorized way of getting around cities, and the most economically exclusive. This $29 billion flies in the face of NVTA’s “Core Values of Equity, Sustainability, and Safety.” We’re not building new coal plants anymore. Why are we building new highways?

I’m not jealous of NVTA chair Phyllis Randall. She is board chair not only of the NVTA but also Loudoun County, and when we spoke, she explained the bind that the Authority is in. Randall, like her colleagues on both boards, is dedicated to equity, sustainability, and safety. Randall pointed out that Loudoun County hasn’t approved any new development west of Rt. 15 for more than a decade, protecting the natural environment of Northern Virginia.

The NVTA’s mandate, Randall explained, is to improve transportation for everyone in Northern Virginia, not only people living in transit-friendly areas like Arlington. The NVTA is looking for ways to help people in outer suburbs get around without cars, but so far they haven’t been able to find an approach that doesn’t involve more highways, Randall said.

I know it’s difficult to imagine a solution for such outlying, car-dependent areas, but I hope it won’t be impossible.

Pie chart by number of projects, not by funding amount. Note: acronyms: High-occupancy vehicle (HOV), high-occupancy toll (HOT), and transportation demand management (TDM). Image from TransAction draft plan.

We need transportation that puts people first

The contradiction of TransAction is rooted in goals based on modes rather than people. People will use the infrastructure they’re given: If it’s fastest and cheapest for me to get to work by driving, it doesn’t matter how much I care about the environment; the boss needs me by nine, so I’ll hop in the car.

But if it’s easier to walk to a BRT route that zips past the traffic, anyone will get on the bus. The NVTA’s goals are to improve “mobility, accessibility, and resiliency across all modes, including roads, transit, walking, bicycling and more.” (TransAction p.4) If we leave behind this idea that all modes should be improved, and start searching instead for the most effective way to help people move, we’ll be able to build a Virginia where our investments work together instead of canceling each other out.

The public comment period will be open until September 18. You can learn more about TransAction, submit your comment (English| Spanish| Korean), leave a voicemail (571-354-0065), or reach out to Randall directly.