Region’s transportation project list largely ignores public input, but the plan can still be improved

A year ago, the public overwhelmingly commented that the region’s draft transportation plan, Visualize 2045, neglected climate change and needed to shift its investments to more sustainable transportation options. Yet, since then the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (TPB) has made no substantive changes to a plan they will vote on in June. The proposed plan also fails to meet commitments by our elected officials at the Council of Governments (COG) to dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to prioritize walkable housing and jobs near transit.

Digging through the plan’s 200-plus pages, there is language acknowledging the challenges of the pandemic, expected lasting changes in how people travel, and the topic of climate change. However, what matters is the projects that the plan decides to fund, and there is almost no change in the proposed projects and their forecast performance from the last Visualize 2045 four years ago.

The public comment period on the draft plan is still open through May 1

Failure to follow through on climate and other regional goals

The TPB comprises local and state elected officials and representatives of regional and state transportation agencies. So its overall membership should be accountable to the public and to the policies and priorities that our local elected bodies and state elected officials set.

While COG and TPB governing boards have set noble goals, they have failed to reform their transportation plan to reflect them - and the results show this disconnect:

• Despite a new climate action plan by COG and a separate climate study by TPB, this Visualize 2045 transportation plan makes no real changes and fails to reduce emissions any more than the last one.
• The proposed plan devotes far too much to highway expansion in the face of our climate crisis, $28.2 billion, versus $14.6 billion for expanding our transit, pedestrian and bicycle networks. This is despite the adopted commitments by officials to transit-oriented land use in the Region Forward plan in 2010, transit-oriented regional housing targets in 2019, and their recommitment in 2021 to focusing development and infrastructure investment at transit stations.
• The plan’s huge increase in highway and arterial lane miles will cause billions more miles of driving per year, on top of the driving anticipated by population and job growth – similar to what we showed for Northern Virginia plans.
• Despite allocating $28.2 billion to roads, access to jobs by car is basically flat, with the biggest negative impact on residents of Prince George’s, because the plan and COG continue to fail to address the east-west jobs divide.
• Many residents will be stuck driving long trips for daily needs. The plan only makes a very modest reduction in per capita driving, a 3 to 5% change by 2045, which is no different than what the 2018 plan would accomplish.

Out of step with public input and their own studies

Last April, 145 out of 229 comments received by TPB specifically said the draft project list didn’t do enough to meet the region’s climate goals. The other big themes were opposition to highway expansion and requests to prioritize sustainability and equity. Only six comments supported the plan’s substantial highway and road expansion.

The opinion survey of 2,400 regional residents, likewise, showed a desire for more sustainable and equitable transportation investments.

Also, before adopting the draft list of projects last summer, TPB members were briefed on the initial results of their Climate Change Mitigation Study. They heard a clear consensus of national research and studies from this region that only by both shifting more travel to transit, biking and walking and adopting electric vehicles would they meet their climate targets.

TPB did vote to make changes to the next Visualize 2045 in two years. Also, the Maryland Department of Transportation offered to pay a larger share of some Montgomery County transit projects, after its I-270/I-495 widening and toll lanes project was threatened but remained in the plan. However, aside from these fig leaf concessions, TPB made no changes to the current proposed plan.

Note that anticipated post-pandemic lasting changes in travel, such as increased telework, were not modeled in the plan update. Increased telework could mean that the peak hour travel so often used to justify road expansion, would be less of an issue, and that transit service could be rebalanced to provide more frequent all-day service.

The good news on what transit-oriented development can do

In spite of a mixed bag of projects, Visualize 2045 does show how effective land use and transit can be. Just contrast how much more effectively transit-oriented development (TOD) expands job access than spending almost $30 billion to expand roads:

Some jurisdictions have shown commitment in Visualize 2045 to transit and TOD, such as the Montgomery County bus rapid transit (BRT) network, improvements to MARC and VRE commuter rail, BRT projects along Route 1 in Fairfax and Alexandria, and the new Long Bridge, among others. But there could be more - for example, Northern Virginia efforts to create BRT along a key travel corridor, Route 7 from Alexandria to Tysons, have not been adequately pushed to make it in the plan.

Also worth noting - TPB staff did conduct a very robust opinion survey and focus groups and incorporated impactful quotes of regional residents throughout the document. Another new analysis in Visualize 2045 looks at the increased exposure of low/moderate-income and residents of color to high traffic volumes and pollution.

Public comments are due before midnight on Sunday, May 1

TPB still has the opportunity to improve this plan. In May its member agencies will continue to decide on strategies and goals to slash climate pollution. Public comments on Visualize 2045 can be submitted through May 1, and after that the public can still send comments to TPB board members by noon May 17 to provide input on the climate strategies.

TPB can improve Visualize 2045 now by:

1. Adopting a strong on-road transportation greenhouse gas reduction goal, and setting specific, numeric targets for adopting electric vehicles (20 to 25% of vehicles on the road by 2030) and reducing per capita passenger vehicle miles traveled by 15 to 20% by 2030, consistent with the findings of TPB’s climate study.
2. Endorsing the full slate of climate strategies that TPB’s climate study shows are necessary, including walkable, transit-oriented land use; pricing parking and major roads; providing equitable commuter benefits that enable more sustainable travel; and investing in electric vehicle infrastructure and programs.
3. Removing unnecessary and destructive highway expansion projects. If any of these are truly beneficial to the region, then the agencies can prove it in the next plan update that will involve scenario analysis and zero-based budgeting.
4. Launching a major regional study to develop actions that reduce the east-west jobs and housing divide, put more homes near transit, and more equitably and sustainably price our transportation system. TPB can begin the work as soon as this summer using the climate funding in its adopted FY23 work program.
5. Committing to put these actions into a plan update that will produce a new climate-friendly plan by 2024.