WMATA officials hope “normal” Metro service will resume in spring 2021 — but nobody really knows

Metro bus and rail service might not return to normal until next spring, according to a plan released by the agency on Monday. Trains will continue running every 20-30 minutes “likely for the rest of the year” while the region responds to the coronavirus pandemic. Metro staff plan to present the plan to the agency’s board of directors on Thursday.

As the coronavirus pandemic worsened earlier in 2020, Metro cut bus and rail service, closed 19 rail stations, required all passengers to board and exit buses via the rear door to protect operators, and instituted more thorough equipment cleaning. The agency purposefully told riders not to take trains and buses as regional leaders implemented stay-at-home orders to prevent the spread of the virus.

If we don’t make transit a key part of our recovery planning, we will be shortchanging DC & region’s ability to come back stronger. Working families, businesses, essential employees, economic growth — all depend on a stronger transit system. https://t.co/cytrb0ea4H

— Charles Allen (@charlesallen) May 11, 2020

The new plan shows how Metro hopes to restore service, which will happen in three parts: stabilization, which we are in now, managed reentry, and recovery.

The first phase, stabilization, also means track work

Metro expects current service levels be in place for the foreseeable future, potentially through the end of this year. The agency thinks most people will be able to continue teleworking and the agency is prioritizing the safety of its workers by reducing how many are interacting with riders and running buses or trains each day.

Metro trains now run every 20 minutes during the week and every 30 minutes on the weekends (15 and 20 on the Red Line, respectively), and service ends early at 9 pm instead of 11:30 pm during the week and 1 am on Fridays and Saturdays. Buses run limited routes on Sunday schedules, and generally end their service at 11 pm.

Current bus and rail schedules give Metro the capacity to handle 40,000 daily rail riders and 85,000 daily bus trips – a significant decrease from the nearly one million trips per day it handled before the pandemic. The agency says they may be able to reopen the first and last cars on trains and some stations could reopen.

The agency plans to use the current drastically reduced ridership level to get ahead on some trackwork through station shutdowns. The summer platform project, currently scheduled to shut down all rail stations west of Ballston, was recently expanded to also include all Silver Line stations west of Ballston as well.

The change in the shutdown area solves two problems, Metro says. First, due to “workforce availability” limits in the Rail Operations Control Center which runs trains (in other words, Metro is short on a critical group of staff), the agency prefers an easier shutdown instead of a more complicated single-tracking. Second, the shutdown is being used to speed up train control software integration required for the second phase of the Silver Line.

A month of shutdowns on the Yellow and Green lines is also being planned between Navy Yard and Fort Totten. More closures are set to be announced later in June for July.

June 7-13:

• L’Enfant Plaza to Pentagon work zone
• No stations closed
• No Yellow Line service north of National Airport

June 14-20:

• L’Enfant Plaza to Anacostia/Pentagon work zone
• Closed stations: Navy Yard and Waterfront
• No Yellow Line service north of National Airport

June 21-27:

• L’Enfant Plaza to Shaw-Howard/Pentagon work zone
• Closed Stations: Archives, Gallery Place-Chinatown (Lower), and Mt. Vernon Convention Center
• No Yellow Line service north of National Airport

June 28-July 12:

• U Street to Ft. Totten work zone
• Closed Stations: Columbia Heights and Georgia Ave

Phase two, “managed re-entry”

There are so many unknowns at the moment with everything in flux, but Metro thinks the second phase of their recovery could occur between August and October. Part of this depends on if or when schools reopen, which would drive more bus and rail ridership. Even if schools reopen, Metro says “large-scale telework and persistent unemployment are expected in this phase, and discretionary activities including dining out and entertainment remain limited.”

During this phase, Metro hopes they will be able to reopen most or all of the 19 stations closed earlier in the year to conserve cleaning supplies and protect workers. Trains may be able to run every 10 minutes, up from every 20, and buses might be able to resume operating the “substantial” portion of all the usual routes. These changes would give Metro the capacity to handle 200,000 rail trips and 110,000 bus trips per day.

Ridership will remain “unpredictable” over the next 12 to 18 months, according to the agency presentation, but their “goal is to increase service in stages, ahead of demand, to maintain social distancing for customers to the extent possible.”

Recovery, but when?

The third phase of Metro’s recovery plan includes returning bus and rail service to their regular schedules, including allowing riders to board buses at the front again. SmarTrip targets may be added to rear doors on buses to accelerate the possibility of all-door bus boarding as well.

Trains would no longer stop running at 9 pm during this phase but continue to midnight.

Metro thinks the last phase of the recovery might begin early in 2021, but that very well could change. The agency cites thinking from the Centers for Disease Control for when this could happen, but it is far from set in stone.

The agency says it plans to monitor ridership and hopes to work with large employers like the federal government to help figure out the timing of the phases.

Ridership and service catch-22

The top priority for Metro throughout this is employee safety, according to the documents and interviews given by the General Manager. The agency cites, among other things, supply chains availability and the ability for the agency and others to obtain sanitizers, masks, and other protective equipment as part of its restoration plan. If protections for workers are not able to be in place, Wiedefeld and the agency will be less likely to ramp service back up.

Given all the uncertainties that exist around reopening a region safely so as to not spread the coronavirus, Metro is also hedging significantly with their plans. All timelines are estimates, and they stipulate that system will gradually reopen “when safe & appropriate.” No dates are set in stone here.

Transportation service restoration is also key to the ability of the DC region to reopen; employers and elected officials are looking at it to help judge how and when workers can return to their offices. If safe transportation options don’t exist to move large numbers of people, then alternatives like teleworking will likely continue. Already, some companies including Capital One, headquartered in Tysons, are advising workers to telework through at least Labor Day.

Local political leaders say they plan to monitor the impacts of the coronavirus in the region to determine when and how businesses, restaurants, transportation, and recreational facilities should reopen. While all want a speedy recovery, reopening the region too soon could result in “a more damaging return to business closures later in the summer.”