3 graphs and 2 maps about jobs and teleworking during the coronavirus

As the Washington region became dramatically more prosperous over the last 30 years, some neighborhoods have been left behind. This shift yielded a regional economy heavily tilted toward knowledge-based industries that allow for telework, but some large industries still rely on physically present workers. This context informs how we navigate and recover from the COVID-19 epidemic. Here are four things to keep in mind as the region ponders the crisis response.

#1: The region now has mostly high- and low-income residents

From 1990 to 2018, the region’s median income grew, in real terms, by about $10,000. This could have happened by people at all incomes earning a little more. This is not what happened. Instead, there was a shift: middle-income jobs disappeared, replaced by high-income jobs.

This division of job types sets the stage for how residents in the region are placed to navigate the COVID-19 threat.

#2: Telework is difficult in some of the region’s largest industries

Overall, about 60% of jobs throughout the region cannot be done from home. This share varies substantially by industry. As measured by the number of jobs, Greater Washington’s largest industry is “Professional, Scientific and Technical Services,” accounting for roughly one in six regional jobs. This industry includes law firms, accounting firms, engineering firms, and other professional services. More than three-quarters of these jobs can be done from home.

However, the ability to telework does not guarantee continued employment. Although jobs with telework capabilities are probably more likely than non-telework jobs to continue, some telework jobs have already disappeared due to declining consumer demand. Conversely, some jobs that cannot be done by telework — such as trash pick-up — remain relatively secure.

Relative to the country as a whole, the region has a more knowledge-centered economy. For example, the share of jobs in “Professional, Scientific and Technical” industries is about twice the national average. While these jobs are less likely to immediately disappear, COVID-related unemployment remains a risk for a large swath of workers.

#3: Even at the same income, neighborhoods farther from the urban core have fewer jobs that allow for telework

For the graph above we defined the region as the Census’s Washington-Arlington-Alexandria metropolitan area. We define urban jurisdictions as Washington, DC; Alexandria, VA; and Arlington, VA. We define suburban jurisdictions as Maryland’s Montgomery and Prince George’s Counties and Virginia’s Fairfax County, along with the cities of Fairfax and Falls Church. We call all remaining jurisdictions exurban.

Across the entire income distribution, those who live in lower-income neighborhoods are less likely to have jobs they can do via telework. But even for high-income neighborhoods, face-to-face interaction is crucial for many jobs. In neighborhoods with median incomes of roughly $200,000, half of residents have jobs that cannot be done via telework.

This pattern of income and ability to telework varies by neighborhood location. For neighborhoods where the median income is under roughly $50,000, residents of all locations—urban, suburban and exurban—are equally likely to be able to telework. But for higher-income neighborhoods, even at the same income levels, urban residents are strikingly more likely to work in industries where the ability to work from home is common.

For example, in the average urban neighborhood with a median income of $100,000—just about the region’s median of $102,000 — 53% of residents have jobs that cannot be done through telework. For exurban areas, this share is 60%. These differences may make the downturn more severe and slow the recovery in exurban places relative to urban ones.

#4: Areas of concern have low telework potential and a high share of renters

While most homeowners with mortgages are likely to receive some temporary payment relief from federal policies, renters are generally in a more precarious position and rely on local government protections. Neighborhoods with high shares of renters and many jobs that cannot be done by telework are likely among the most vulnerable.

As the maps below show, the overall geographic pattern of these two factors is opposite: neighborhoods with many renters tend to be close to the city, and neighborhoods, where residents are least likely to have telework jobs, are in the exurbs. However, about 3% of neighborhoods score high on both dimensions. Many of these most at-risk neighborhoods are in the District’s southeast quadrant and in Prince George’s county, reflecting the region’s persistent racial inequities. Policymakers should keep a careful eye on outcomes in these places.

In sum, residents in low-income neighborhoods are less likely to be able to work from home and may face a difficult choice of exposure or job loss. However, even for neighborhoods of the same income, exurban households are less likely to be able to telework than suburban households, and suburban households less likely than urban ones. The areas where there are renters, lower-income households, and less telework-able jobs are likely the most vulnerable.

Data sources and notes

Many thanks to Dingel and Neiman (2020) who have classified NAICS codes by their telework-ability.

See the complete list at the Census website here.

Telework-able Jobs

For the share of jobs that are able to telework, we rely on the classification from Dingel and Neiman (2020). This paper classifies the share of workers that have the ability to telework in their jobs by industry. To estimate the share of workers that have the ability to telework, we combine these data with Census data on the number of workers by industry and residential neighborhood below.

Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics (LODES)

LODES data tells us, for each residential neighborhood, the number of workers in each of the two-digit NAICS industry codes.

U.S. Census Bureau. (2020). LEHD Origin-Destination Employment Statistics Data (2002-2017) [computer file]. Washington, DC: U.S. Census Bureau, Longitudinal-Employer Household Dynamics Program [distributor], accessed on 2020-04-14 using the LODES 7.4 [version]

American Community Survey

For all demographic information, we use the American Community Survey block group-level data.

American Community Survey, 2014–2018, 5-year estimates. United States Census Bureau.“Summary File.”2014–2018 American Community Survey. U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey Office, 2019. Web. 1 January 2018. Counties, zip code tabulation areas and block groups.

Maps

County boundaries

US Census Bureau, 2014. 2010 Census county boundaries.

County outlines and Generalization from USNA.edu

Metro map

National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board