A median busway for Richmond Pulse BRT by BeyondDC licensed under Creative Commons.

In Virginia, the Green New Deal movement has cut its legislative teeth this session trying to enact a fossil fuel moratorium, repeal Right to Work, and establish a state Council on Environmental Justice. Activists’ first bill to pass out of one of the General Assembly’s two chambers, however, focused on zoning.

Last week, the House Committee on Transportation voted narrowly in favor of HB585 introduced by Delegate Elizabeth Guzman of Dumfries. Guzman’s bill requires that each locality incorporates strategies to promote transit-oriented development into its comprehensive plan review process.

If passed, this proposal would mean all cities and towns with over 20,000 people, and all counties of over 100,000 residents, will have to promote density, walkability, and growth around transit in their comp plans.

Localities in Virginia rarely like the word “shall”—and indeed lobbyists on behalf of the Virginia Association of Counties, the Homebuilders, and the Virginia Municipal League spoke in opposition at the hearing. This initial wave of resistance to Guzman’s proposal belies the freedom it provides localities within which to incorporate TOD.

Karen Campblin—the Transportation and Smart Growth Co-Chair of the Virginia Chapter of the Sierra Club—summed up HB585’s malleable approach: “Since no two localities are alike, the bill provides flexibility, allowing localities to integrate land-use, housing, and transportation to identify the TOD strategies that would help them achieve their community’s long-term goals and vision, maintain a diverse housing stock, and create a connected and vibrant space for residents, businesses, and visitors.”

Members of the Green New Deal Virginia announcing their legislative agenda.

After the tabling of Delegate Ibraheem Samirah’s proposals to end the bans on multi-family housing and Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) statewide, Guzman’s TOD bill may represent Virginia’s best chance to shift its future growth towards a more sustainable pattern of denser development. HB585 leans into its green roots stating that the thrust of this potential law would be “for the purpose of reducing greenhouse gas emissions through coordinated transportation, housing, and land use planning.”

Although himself on board with Guzman’s environmental goals, Stewart Schwartz—Executive Director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth—believes when arguing TOD before the General Assembly “the best arguments are for reduced fiscal costs of infrastructure, economic competitiveness, and traffic reduction. Compact development at a walking scale has lower infrastructure costs and produces a higher tax return per acre to jurisdictions than does spread out development.”

Schwartz even sees Virginia’s currently less than perfect TOD as one the biggest drivers behind the Commonwealth’s impressive job growth. “TOD is what caused Amazon to choose a site in Virginia over sites across the US. Transit-oriented development in the City of Richmond caused WestRock and CoStar to locate in the city, and even CARMAX has added offices within walking distance of the new Pulse bus rapid transit.”

Although the many new progressives among Democrats’ newfound majority will hop on board with Guzman’s and the Green New Deal’s climate messaging, more conservative Democrats and even some Republicans may be sold on HB585’s fiscal prudence.

As one of the bill’s key backers in Northern Virginia, Campblin argues these two points can work hand in hand to convince lawmakers of all political persuasions that Virginia needs more TOD. “Providing more transit options and improving connections to transit stations is essential for sustainability, improving human health, and is a relatively low-cost investment, particularly when compared to costly highway improvements,” she said.

With the House version safely one its way to crossover, activists’ attention will now turn to the Senate. Lacking an identical SB to speed its passage, the greatest threat to Guzman’s proposal may arise in a conference committee.

If the Green New Deal and smart growth advocates can get HB585 to the Governor’s desk, then a new wave of statewide TOD zoning may be on the horizon in Virginia.

Wyatt Gordon is the senior policy manager for land use and transportation at the Virginia Conservation Network, and an adjunct professor at Virginia Commonwealth University's Department of Urban Planning. He's a born-and-raised Richmonder with a master's in Urban Planning from the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa and a bachelor's in International Political Economy from American University.