Traffic fatalities at historic low, but there’s more to the story

The mainstream media joyfully reported a DOT report released last week that the number of traffic fatalities is at its lowest since 1950. “Traffic deaths at lowest in 60 years” touted USA Today on the front page. Ray LaHood is ecstatic, “[The] announcement shows that America’s roads are the safest they’ve ever been”.

Here’s what you won’t learn from any of the mainstream media outlets:

The 2009 decline in fatalities per VMT was not unusual. Fatalities per 1,000 100 million vehicle miles traveled (VMT) have fallen from 1.73 in 1994 to 1.13 last year. Granted, last year’s drop from 1.26 to 1.13 was large, but it was essentially a continuation of a trend.

The unsung hero in the record low traffic fatalities is the plateau in VMT. While improvements in traffic safety have been completely erased for decades by off-setting increases in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), VMT has not increased since 2004. This has allowed improved traffic safety to finally result in reduced fatalities.

However, VMT appears to be rising again. VMT plateaued in 2004-2006, dropped from 2007-2008, and plateaued again last year. That looks like a sign that VMT is beginning to increase again, which should concern the DOT as it will undo the gains that have been made since 2004. Instead, the DOT nowhere treats rising VMT as a concern.

Traffic is still the leading cause of death among Americans age 3-34. While the DOT press release reminded us of this sobering fact, the USA Today and Washington Post chose to not include it in their reports.

2.22 million people were Injured in traffic collisions in 2009. That’s right. Focusing on fatalities alone is like thinking of modern wars like Iraq and Afghanistan only in terms of fatalities — the advances in medicine and engineering mean fewer fatalities but many more walking wounded.

Why is the spin placed on these statistics so troubling? By not reporting the full causes of the rise and fall in traffic fatalities, and the full effects of traffic collisions, the DOT and mainstream media contribute to the undoing of traffic safety efforts. Why, for example, do parents feel it’s safer to drive their children to school than to let them walk or bike alone, even though the former is far more dangerous than the latter?

Until we achieve a basic intellectual honesty about the undeniable fact that static or falling VMT is required to reduce traffic deaths, we will remain powerless before the leading cause of death in children in the U.S. and abroad.

Update: Swivel, which is hosting the chart, seems to be down. We’re working on getting a static image to replace it.

Update 2: There’s now a static chart.