After a decade of planning, officials in Arlington cancelled the Columbia Pike streetcar this week. If streetcars aren’t going to be the answer on there, what might realistically happen instead?
In the wake of the streetcar’s cancellation, some have suggested Metrorail, BRT, or light rail. None are likely. The county will probably just end up running articulated (“accordion”) buses on Columbia Pike. Voters might be surprised how long that takes, how much it costs, and how little capacity it adds.
It’s also time for the anti-streetcar forces to prove that when they claimed they supported better transit, they meant it and weren’t just using the issue to divide voters. That means they now have to get involved in finding a solution and making it a reality.
There’s tremendous demand for good transit on Columbia Pike. It’s already the busiest bus corridor in Virginia, and by 2040 there could be more transit riders on Columbia Pike alone than in the entire Richmond metropolitan area. Doing nothing isn’t a viable option.
As we discussed yesterday, Metrorail is (unfortunately) not financially realistic, and the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) has told Arlington it may not dedicate a lane to transit — if even that were politically possible over drivers’ inevitable objections.
So what can happen now?
How soon can Arlington beef up bus service?
Unfortunately, large transit projects take years to plan and, if they cost a significant amount, even longer to fund. The funding process is what really held up the Columbia Pike streetcar; Arlington and Fairfax leaders thought they had the money together in the past, like in 2007, when Virginia handed some taxing authority to a regional authority to build transportation. But then courts ruled the plan unconstitutional, and it took more years to get funding together again, culminating in Governor McAuliffe’s pledge this year for the state to pick up a significant amount of the tab.
One plan has gone through some detailed studies: the option called “TSM-2” in the streetcar alternatives analysis. That includes running longer articulated buses on Columbia Pike along with larger bus stops, machines to pay the fare before the bus arrives (“off-vehicle fare collection”), and rebranding the buses as MetroExtra or Metroway.
But even that isn’t so simple.
First, WMATA doesn’t have any bus storage or maintenance yard in Virginia equipped to handle articulated buses. Arlington will have to find land and build that, just as it would have had to do for a streetcar railyard.
Second, Columbia Pike’s pavement isn’t strong enough to handle the wear and tear of hundreds of articulated bus trips per day. It wouldn’t crumble the first week, but before long Arlington will have to reinforce and repave the street, just like it would have had to do for streetcar tracks.
Finally, a lot of planning work will have to re-done. Just how much is not yet clear. At the very least, contracts and design work that had been progressing will cease, and Arlington will have to prepare new contracts and possibly hire new contractors. At the higher end of the scale, it’s possible the entire alternatives analysis process that produced the TSM-2 option will have to start anew, with a different set of constraints.
Whatever the specifics turn out to be, it’s definitely not a simple matter of buying some buses and calling it a day. It’s going to take years.
That likely won’t last for long
The Alternatives Analysis estimated that at current growth rates, ridership will outstrip the capacity for articulated buses before long.
There are three likely scenarios here:
- Columbia Pike will not grow as leaders and residents hope, in which case it will remain depressed relative to the rest of the county and not need more transit ridership. A streetcar might become necessary to jump-start the economy, or voters will keep letting it languish.
- It will grow, demand will increase again, and we’ll be back where we started. Maybe the county will again consider a higher-capacity streetcar, just years later and at an even higher cost.
- The AA is totally wrong and everything will be hunky-dory with just articulated buses, as Libby Garvey and others have argued. That’s worked with voters, but no transit experts have really said it holds water.
What about dedicated lanes?
Several readers have said they believe that transit is just not worthwhile without dedicated lanes. Certainly dedicated lanes are better, but elected officials have to make a judgment about what is politically possible and what is not.
Columbia Pike used to be a state road (and still is in Fairfax). The Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) turned it over to Arlington, but with the condition that the number of lanes open to cars not drop below four — and it’s a four-lane road.
It’s theoretically possible that a transit-friendly governor in Virginia could order VDOT to change this condition and let Arlington dedicate lanes on Columbia Pike. Or maybe in another decade or two, VDOT will come to that decision naturally.
The McAuliffe administration stuck its neck out in support of the streetcar. After Arlington hung them out to dry, will they take even more of a risk to take lanes away from cars?
And what evidence do we have that the voting bloc that would fight against losing any car lanes is smaller than the bloc who opposed spending money?
It’s about politics now
All of the above is, essentially, the calculus that folks inside Arlington government are or will be working through. What should they plan for now? What contracts are necessary?
But this project didn’t lose because of insufficient planning. It lost because of politics.
Arlington has long operated on the “Arlington Way,” where civic leaders and other residents discuss issues calmly in advisory committees, the staff formulate recommendations, the board debates them, and ultimately passes things usually with unanimity.
This works pretty well when residents are willing to trust their elected leaders and county officials. But that system is now dead. The faction opposed to the current board members told voters that the consensus on the county board was a sign of the board not listening to people, and eroded popular trust in the county board and staff.
The county board has no committees. There’s just one political party. The executive isn’t independent. Everything is set up around the idea that everyone acts together. But a faction that now represents 40% of the board isn’t interested in doing it that way (unless they are in charge, maybe).
If the board members just ask the transportation department to devise some options, recommend them to the board, and pick the best one, some people will still be unhappy with whatever happens. There will still be opportunities to blame Mary Hynes, Walter Tejada, and Jay Fisette for not doing it the right way, because there’s no perfect way that will satisfy every person.
Transit supporters need to start thinking of this as a political fight and not a transit planning fight.
Streetcar opponents: You won. Now, get something done
Libby Garvey, John Vihstadt, and Peter Rousselot have consistently claimed they are for better mobility on Columbia Pike. They just don’t want the streetcar. Well, now the streetcar is gone, so there’s no apparent division.
Either they were genuine, in which case they can and will work to make transit better, or they were just using it for political advantage. The trick is to now set things up so that voters will be able to see which it is. (Update: Rousselot, at least, has stated his spending priorities and none of them is transit of any kind on Columbia Pike.)
How about putting Garvey and/or Vihstadt in charge of some sort of committee to analyze transportation on Columbia Pike and recommend solutions? And hold a vote putting the county on record that it does want to ask Virginia for a dedicated lane, and send Garvey down to Richmond to push for it. She sure had nearly boundless energy to meet with state officials to criticize the streetcar; how about doing the same for something that would help Arlington County?
If she succeeds, then that’s fantastic! We get better transit. I don’t think it’ll happen, but I’d love to be proven wrong here. I’d love to be able to praise Libby Garvey and John Vihstadt for making things better instead of just breaking things. Then transit supporters can start seeing them as friends and support their re-election.
But if a dedicated lane can’t happen, articulated buses turn out to cost almost as much as the streetcar, and they’re still too crowded, then voters should blame them, not Fisette, Hynes, and Tejada who tried to do something and got shot down.