Over the last decade, DC has built 13% less housing than its Comprehensive Plan calls for. Of the new housing that is going up, most of it is confined to the central city even though the plan recommends only 30% go there. Meanwhile, most parts of the District are building little or no new housing.
Besides forecasting how much growth the city would need to accommodate, the comp plan also identified where new residents would go. The plan included estimates of how many new households would settle across its 10 planning districts (policy 215.20), the conclusion being that every part of the city would gain new households and thus need to add new units.
The allocations ranged from a 6.8% increase in households in the “Rock Creek West” area, west of the park and above Georgetown, to a 116% increase along the Anacostia waterfront.
One part of town is building far more than its share
The comp plan identified a then-emerging trend towards living in the central city, and assumed that a substantial share of the District’s future population growth would occur in and around downtown. Its policy 304 states that “approximately 30 percent of the District of Columbia’s future housing growth and 70 percent of its job growth will occur within the urban core of the city and adjacent close-in areas along the Anacostia River.”
But in the decade since, DC has been too successful at steering development toward downtown.
Instead of 30% of DC’s housing growth, the “Central Washington” and adjacent “Lower Anacostia Waterfront/Near Southwest” planning districts are seeing the lion’s share of both new housing and new jobs. According to counts provided by economic development officials and local business improvement districts, two-thirds of the building permits issued for new housing in the entire District have been for this central area.
The waterfront planning area, which includes the Capitol Riverfront (Navy Yard) and Southwest Waterfront, along with Poplar Point on the east side of the Anacostia River, was assigned the highest housing-growth target in the comp plan. It would receive 9,400 additional households by 2025, or 1/6 of the entire city’s housing growth — a goal it’s on track to substantially exceed. As of 2016, the waterfront area will have already met 73% of its 2005-2025 housing goal, compared to 46% for the entire District.
The Capitol Riverfront area alone accounted for nearly half of the new housing permitted in DC last year. There, 4,874 units were built or under construction as of last year, and another 1,249 units broke ground in just the first few months of 2015. Another 1,407 units will be under construction in Southwest Waterfront at the end of this year, and nearly 2,000 additional units have already been planned.
Many thousands more units will be built before 2025; a total of 11,978 units have been proposed so far just in Capitol Riverfront. Plans have yet to emerge for large sites like Greenleaf Gardens, Buzzard Point, and Poplar Point.
Meanwhile, the Central Washington planning area — which encompasses the swath from the Capitol to the Kennedy Center, between Massachusetts Avenue and I-395 — has almost met its 8,400-unit goal. Just two of its neighborhoods, Mount Vernon Triangle and NoMa, have added 7,300 units in the past decade. Together with 674 units at CityCenterDC, that means the area has built 95% of its projected new units, in half the time.
As with the waterfront, there’s more to come: redevelopments at Northwest One like Sursum Corda, residential conversions of existing office buildings, the Southwest EcoDistrict and nearby sites like the Portals, and a few more infill parcels
Central city housing growth has a lot of advantages, as the comp plan points out: “Absorbing the demand for higher density units within these areas is an effective way to meet housing demands, create mixed-use areas, and conserve single-family residential neighborhoods throughout the city.”
Yet this one strategy was always meant to be one way to meet housing demands, not the only strategy. The District’s other policies to “conserve single-family residential neighborhoods” are doing too good of a job at keeping new housing out of the neighborhoods that were supposed to accommodate 70% of future housing growth — and keeping the District as a whole well below its housing growth projections.