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Test scores in Maryland have dropped, apparently because instruction is now based on the new Common Core standards while the tests are still tied to the old curriculum. But would the results have been any better if the tests had been aligned to the new standards?

Standardized test scores for elementary and middle-school students in almost every Maryland county dropped this past year, the Washington Post reports. Montgomery County’s overall passing rate in reading and math fell by 4 percentage points, and scores in Prince George’s County sank by more than 3 points at the elementary level.

School officials said this was expected. Teachers are beginning to switch to the new Common Core State Standards, which have been adopted by 45 states and DC. But because the statewide tests haven’t changed, some students were tested on material they never studied.

And officials say that next year, when some Maryland students are taking the old test and others are piloting the Common Core-aligned test, scores may drop yet again. States that have signed on to the Common Core are required to have their tests fully aligned to the curriculum by the 2014-15 school year.

It doesn’t seem to make sense to require students to take a test that isn’t aligned to what they’re being taught. On the other hand, states that have already aligned their tests to the Common Core are also seeing a drop in scores.

The problem is that the Common Core standards, which focus on a more analytical approach to reading and math, work best when kids begin with them in kindergarten and follow a carefully graduated curriculum through high school. Since schools only began using the new standards a few years ago, only the youngest children are getting that experience.

That probably explains why third-grade math scores fell by a dramatic 12 percent in Montgomery County. Joshua Starr, superintendent of Montgomery County Public Schools, points out that those students have been schooled in a Common Core-based curriculum since kindergarten, so they were unlikely to do well on a test based on the old curriculum.

On the other hand, high school students who have only been exposed to the Common Core curriculum for a year or two are unlikely to do well on a test that assumes they’ve been steeped in it for their entire school career. While some states are phasing the Common Core-aligned tests in gradually, starting in the younger grades, others, like DC, are bringing them in all at once. Scores at the high school level may well plummet.

No matter what states do, test scores are likely to be rocky for the next several years. Some, like Starr, have called for a moratorium on testing until things settle down, but it seems unlikely to happen. In the meantime, the best we can do is take a deep breath, stay calm, and recognize that in the short term, at least, test scores aren’t necessarily measuring what students are learning.