So far, we’ve looked at fun maps, what residents of each area want, and how much to change the wards. Now it’s time to look at the real meat of the issue: which areas could switch wards.

We can generate some maps that average out all of the recommendations and let us view them graphically. Here is a map for all respondents, one for just residents, and one for residents of each ward showing which areas they would switch to other wards.

View map for: All Ward: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Each area is colored based on the ward that the most respondents placed it in. Darker colors reflect stronger consensus, lighter colors greater division. Click any map for a larger and interactive version.

These are quite similar, though there are a few differences. Close to 50% of respondents put the tract including the Capitol, which only contains 8 residents, in Ward 6 versus Ward 2, so the small variations between the maps from residents of each ward switches this back and forth. But it has almost no people, so it doesn’t help solve the redistricting problem.

The Ward 7 part of Census Tract 76.05 in the Fairlawn neighborhood is the small piece of Ward 7 that looks like it’s jutting into Ward 8. This was the only area where switching into Ward 8 was the most popular choice among residents of the local area. Only the Ward 3 (where it’s exactly 50-50) and Ward 7 average don’t switch it; respondents from all other wards show it fairly strongly switching into Ward 8.

A majority of people also put the area containing RFK stadium into ward 7, the visually simplest way to add population to Ward 7. It got moved in 54% of maps overall and 53% of resident maps. Ward 6 residents weren’t as eager, only moving it 45% of the time and much more often moving some of eastern Ward 5 into Ward 7. That was a popular alternative with respondents in general, as well.

The lighter colors for eastern Ward 2 show how residents of all wards generally were more likely to move those areas than others.

Overall, these maps help to show which changes were most common for maps made using the tool. Fairlawn united in Ward 8, either RFK/Hill East or eastern Ward 5 went to Ward 7, and then something in eastern Ward 2 went to Ward 5 or 6.

Naturally, the Council will not just be deciding based on the majority vote in the Redistricting Game. Councilmembers’ preferences will play into it very strongly, as will other community input. But none of them want the changes that are required to balance the wards, and neither do their constituents.

Tommy Wells’ chief of staff, Charles Allen, tweeted that they don’t want any of Ward 6 removed. Ward 6 is pretty close to average size, anyway, so it would be ideal to leave it alone.

But the alternative, having some of eastern Ward 5 switch to Ward 7, would yield strong opposition from Harry Thomas, Jr. He wants to be able to point to economic development in his ward, and most of the planned economic development is in the eastern part of the ward.

The other councilmembers will be trying to find solutions which their colleagues can best live with. If there aren’t easy solutions, where one councilmember would just as soon be rid of an area and another councilmember wants it, they’ll have to make a call that some will like and some will hate.

One way to make that decision is to look at which options make the most residents happy, and the fewest unhappy. We’ll delve into a few specific alternatives in the next and final part.

David Alpert created Greater Greater Washington in 2008 and was its executive director until 2020. He formerly worked in tech and has lived in the Boston, San Francisco Bay, and New York metro areas in addition to Washington, DC. He lives with his wife and two children in Dupont Circle.