Montgomery County residents support more housing types, a new poll suggests

For the past two years, Montgomery County has talked about allowing more, and more affordably-priced, homes in neighborhoods where you can only build a single-family house. County officials have shied away from making these changes, in part because of a vocal group of opponents. But a new poll suggests that most residents support more diverse housing types.

Montgomery County is working on a plan called Thrive Montgomery 2050, which lays out how the county should grow and change over the next 30 years, focusing on racial equity, climate change, and economic development. Thrive has a lot of proposals, from better bus service to a new Montgomery College campus to promoting arts and culture.

County planners also found that the population is growing, and that there’s a lack of open land for building and an ongoing housing shortage, leading to skyrocketing home prices. That’s why they recommend allowing more affordable types of homes, like duplexes, townhomes, and apartments, within a few blocks of major roads like Georgia Avenue, Connecticut Avenue, and Wisconsin Avenue. Today, these areas are mostly zoned for single-family homes. While Thrive doesn’t change zoning, it would empower decision-makers to change the zoning there to fit the plan’s recommendations.

Most people like zoning reform, actually

It turns out that many Montgomery County residents are okay with that. In May, Data for Progress polled 529 residents and likely Democratic voters on a variety of issues. One question asked respondents if they supported Thrive and its recommendation to open up “single-family neighborhoods” to duplexes and triplexes. Fifty-five percent of respondents said yes. Just 21% said no, and 24% said they didn’t know.

Support was higher among Black residents (73%), people under 45 (62%), renters (61%), and single people (58%), but there wasn’t a group where the majority opposed Thrive. The least enthusiastic group was white residents: 50% said they support Thrive, while 24% said they don’t and 26% said they don’t know.

As Bethesda Beat recently reported, the poll found 33% of voters would re-elect County Executive Marc Elrich, while 14% each would vote for challengers Hans Riemer or David Blair, and 38% were undecided. They were also unhappy with how Elrich, a staunch opponent of the plan, has handled housing affordability.

Just 22% of voters said they approve of Elrich’s approach to affordability, while 34% said no, while the remainder either didn’t have an opinion or didn’t know. The same groups that had stronger support for Thrive also were more unhappy with housing affordability, including people under 45 (49%), Black residents (46%), and renters (42%).

Gubernatorial candidates like zoning reform too

The governor’s race reflects this apparent enthusiasm for zoning reform. Bikemore (an advocacy group) asked candidates if they’d open up single-family zoning at the state level and three candidates—Peter Franchot, Doug Gansler, and John King—all said yes.

“Exclusionary zoning that only allows single-family homes is partially responsible for our housing shortages and obstacles to increased density exacerbate our reliance on fossil fuels,” King wrote, citing recent laws in California and Oregon that have required jurisdictions to allow multiple homes on lots previously zoned only for single-family houses.

Two other candidates, Wes Moore and Tom Perez, said that local cities and counties should decide on whether to change zoning, though Perez said the state can encourage them to upzone. “The state must use its resources to incentivize progressive local land use policy,” he wrote.

Local elected officials think people are mad

The opposition to new housing is loudest at the local level, which is also where—barring any state intervention, as in California and Oregon—nearly all land use decisions are made. Local officials are easily spooked by vitriolic statements, even if they come from a minority, and some Montgomery County residents have pushed back hard against Thrive, claiming it’ll lower their property values, wreck “neighborhood character,” or is part of a conspiracy to take their homes.

In response, Montgomery County officials have been reluctant to support housing reforms. Over a year since the Planning Board submitted Thrive to the County Council–and after over 160 community meetings–there is no timeline for a vote.

Related projects have struggled as well. A bill from Councilmember Will Jawando that would allow duplexes, townhomes, and apartments on about 24,000 lots near the Red Line that are currently zoned for single-family homes went nowhere. Last week, the County Council removed several blocks from a new plan for downtown Silver Spring due to outcry from neighbors, though in a small win, it did upzone six blocks to allow multiple homes per lot.

When the Action Committee for Transit asked County Council and County Executive candidates if they’d support Thrive as it’s written today for its election scorecard, many of them said no, citing community opposition and a need for more feedback.

But whomst is the community?

Studies show that older, white homeowners tend to dominate public input, and they’re also the most likely to fight new homes in their neighborhoods. Compared to Montgomery County as a whole, Thrive opponents are much wealthier and likelier to have owned their homes for decades. Candidates may think opposing or appearing neutral on Thrive or any other housing reform is the best approach. After all, if they’re hearing from opponents who have the time and the means to get involved, they might conclude that’s how everyone feels.

Common sense would tell us that’s not the case, especially in a diverse community like Montgomery County and in a diverse state like Maryland. Talking to more residents would likely show much broader support for affordable homes and diverse neighborhoods, as these poll results prove.