Muriel Bowser predicts DC holds 800,000 people in 20 years. That requires a lot of new housing.
DC mayor Muriel Bowser appeared on MSNBC’s Morning Joe on Tuesday. In response to a question about whether DC is “full,” she said DC “is going to keep growing” to 800,000 people in about 20 years. A recent report from George Mason University says it’ll take a lot of new housing, of all types and for all income ranges, to get there.
Here’s the exchange, which starts around four minutes into this video:
CNBC’s Brian Sullivan: Over the last ten years a number of major corporations — pretty much all the defense organizations, by the way — are either based in DC or around it. DC’s population has surged. I have a lot of friends there and I’ll speak for you and them: What are you going to do about the traffic? Is DC full? Because it seems full when I’m on the Beltway.
Mayor Bowser: It’s not full. We’re going to keep growing. Keep in mind that in the fifties we had 800,000 people that lived in DC. We’re at about 660,000 now, and probably in the next 20 years we’ll get up to 800,000 again. Now we have to be smart, we have to invest in our infrastructure…”
Sullivan: The Silver Line Metro has been expanded. That’s nice …
Bowser: … And it’s going to continue to expand. We’re going to invest in our Metro. And part of the things that all of us mayors are talking about is what the Congress can do to help us. It’s important that we get a permanent transportation bill and fund it.
Disregarding the whole panel’s apparent confusion between the District and the larger region (where the Beltway, Silver Line, and most of the defense companies are located), Bowser’s statistic fits with the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG) recent projections.
How much housing does our area need?
The George Mason University Center for Regional Analysis recently published a report projecting the amount of housing needed in all the jurisdictions in the Washington region over the next ten years. This updates a 2013 report, which Aaron Wiener summarized as saying, “We Need More Housing. Lots More Housing.”
Starting with projections including the COG population forecasts, author Jeannette Chapman estimated the numbers of new housing units that each jurisdiction will need, and broke it down among single-family houses (attached, like row houses, and detached), multi-family (like apartment buildings), rental units, and owned units. The report also looks at the need for people in different income ranges, from less than 30% of Area Median Income up to 120% and more.
The bottom line, in Wiener-ese, is: “We Still Need More Housing. Lots More Housing. All Kinds. And All Prices.”
Here’s a table showing just DC data, which I assembled from various tables in the CRA report:
District of Columbia, 2023 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<30% AMI | 30-50- | All Low Income
| 80- | 100- | 120%+ AMI
| Total
| Total DC
| 75,250
| 41,330
| 22,980
| 139,550
| 49,880
| 23,450
| 103,130
| 316,020
| Single-family
| 16,840
| 13,010
| 8,060
| 37,910
| 17,770
| 8,700
| 49,590
| 113,960
| Multi-family
| 58,400
| 28,320
| 14,920
| 101,640
| 32,110
| 14,760
| 53,540
| 202,050
| Owner
| 13,270
| 12,640
| 7,610
| 33,520
| 21,080
| 10,500
| 66,270
| 131,380
| Renter
| 61,970
| 28,690
| 15,370
| 106,030
| 28,800
| 12,950
| 36,860
| 184,640
| New units from 2011
|
| <30% AMI
| 30- | 50- | All Low Income
| 80- | 100- | 120%+ AMI
| Total
| Total DC
| 12,600
| 4,960
| 1,920
| 19,490
| 7,450
| 3,030
| 17,380
| 47,340
| Single-family
| 1,791
| -105
| -24
| 3,696
| 1,347
| 253
| 4,467
| 7,753
| Multi-family
| 10,804
| 5,069
| 1,946
| 37,916
| 6,089
| 2,770
| 12,918
| 39,630
| Owner
| 3,278
| 1,242
| 1,284
| 13,081
| 4,121
| 963
| 10,014
| 20,884
| Renter
| 9,319
| 3,720
| 634
| 28,579
| 3,313
| 2,068
| 7,396
| 26,422
| Percent Change from 2011
|
| <30% AMI
| 30-49.9% AMI
| 50-79.9% AMI
| All Low Income
| 80-99.9% AMI
| 100-119.9% AMI
| 120%+ AMI
| Total
| Total DC
| 20.1%
| 13.6%
| 9.1%
| 16.2%
| 17.6%
| 14.8%
| 20.3%
| 17.6%
| Single-family
| 11.9%
| -0.8%
| -0.3%
| 10.8%
| 8.2%
| 3.0%
| 9.9%
| 7.3%
| Multi-family
| 22.7%
| 21.8%
| 15.0%
| 59.5%
| 23.4%
| 23.1%
| 31.8%
| 24.4%
| Owner
| 32.8%
| 10.9%
| 20.3%
| 64.0%
| 24.3%
| 10.1%
| 17.8%
| 18.9%
| Renter
| 17.7%
| 14.9%
| 4.3%
| 36.9%
| 13.0%
| 19.0%
| 25.1%
| 16.7%
| |
Except for single-family housing for people making between 30% and 80% of AMI, DC needs more housing in every box.
The top-line number is 47,340 new units from 2011 to 2023. That’s 3,945 units a year over 12 years. But according to this data, DC added only 3,226 units a year on average from 2011-2014, and that was during a massive boom. The average from 2005-2014, which includes the previous boom and the intervening recession, was 2,153 units a year.
Plus, most new units were not in the lower-income affordable ranges, where DC needs to be adding 1,050 units for people under 30% AMI a year and 573 a year for people making 30-80% AMI.
This challenge is not just in DC. Here’s a table from the report for the whole region:
Housing needs, 2023 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
<30% AMI | 30-50- | All Low Income
| 80- | 100- | 120%+ AMI
| Total
| Dist. of Columbia
| 75,250
| 41,330
| 22,980
| 139,550
| 49,880
| 23,450
| 103,130
| 316,020
| Montgomery
| 43,230
| 45,940
| 33,350
| 122,520
| 77,770
| 36,560
| 170,760
| 407,610
| Prince George’s
| 57,020
| 55,380
| 37,830
| 150,220
| 79,360
| 32,440
| 81,350
| 343,370
| Rest of Sub. Md.1
| 40,730
| 31,710
| 19,980
| 92,420
| 56,790
| 27,230
| 81,490
| 257,930
| Suburban Md.
| 140,980
| 133,030
| 91,150
| 365,160
| 213,930
| 96,220
| 333,600
| 1,008,910
| Arlington
| 13,860
| 7,560
| 5,790
| 27,210
| 20,780
| 10,310
| 56,950
| 115,260
| Alexandria city
| 9,710
| 8,450
| 6,310
| 24,470
| 16,090
| 6,940
| 32,070
| 79,570
| Fairfax2
| 41,070
| 36,480
| 24,640
| 102,190
| 86,390
| 42,880
| 213,590
| 445,050
| Prince William3
| 19,500
| 22,260
| 15,360
| 57,120
| 43,940
| 20,080
| 70,780
| 191,920
| Rest of No. Va.4
| 40,730
| 38,010
| 28,500
| 107,240
| 71,250
| 35,130
| 154,060
| 367,680
| Northern Va.
| 124,860
| 112,760
| 80,600
| 318,220
| 238,460
| 115,350
| 527,450
| 1,199,480
| Entire Region
| 341,090
| 287,110
| 194,740
| 822,940
| 502,270
| 235,030
| 964,180
| 2,524,410
| Increase from 2011
|
| <30% AMI
| 30- | 50- | All Low Income
| 80- | 100- | 120%+ AMI
| Total
| Dist. of Columbia
| 12,600
| 4,960
| 1,920
| 19,490
| 7,450
| 3,030
| 17,380
| 47,340
| Montgomery
| 5,290
| 6,550
| 3,120
| 14,960
| 7,400
| 4,860
| 20,900
| 48,110
| Prince George’s
| 13,450
| 11,090
| 6,990
| 31,540
| 5,190
| 110
| 4,780
| 41,620
| Rest of Sub. Md.1
| 14,710
| 6,740
| 1,810
| 23,250
| 8,890
| 4,980
| 14,450
| 51,580
| Suburban Md.
| 33,450
| 24,380
| 11,920
| 69,750
| 21,480
| 9,950
| 40,130
| 141,310
| Arlington
| 4,740
| 170
| 1,910
| 6,820
| 4,440
| 1,510
| 11,100
| 23,870
| Alexandria city
| 2,760
| 2,320
| 520
| 5,590
| 2,740
| 490
| 6,030
| 14,850
| Fairfax2
| 2,240
| 4,760
| 1,030
| 8,020
| 9,750
| 6,910
| 15,690
| 40,380
| Prince William3
| 3,610
| 6,400
| 2,480
| 12,490
| 9,690
| 4,720
| 15,720
| 42,610
| Rest of No. Va.4
| 11,790
| 7,910
| 7,140
| 26,840
| 12,190
| 8,780
| 52,200
| 100,010
| Northern Va.
| 25,130
| 21,550
| 13,080
| 59,760
| 38,800
| 22,420
| 100,740
| 221,720
| Entire Region
| 71,190
| 50,890
| 26,920
| 149,000
| 67,730
| 35,400
| 158,260
| 410,380
| |
This is still a lot of sprawl
The GMU report considers the Washington region to be very large, spanning all the way to southern Maryland and Fredericksburg and Spotsylvania, while the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments’ definition ends at Prince Wiliam. The report estimates a lot of housing and job growth out in those mostly-undeveloped areas; it would be far better to concentrate job and housing growth in the built-up counties and cities, but that would require even more new housing than the high numbers in this report.
On top of that, the GMU report forecasts that a lot of the new workers who fill new jobs in the region will actually live outside of its definition Washington region and commute in. A lot of them commute to jobs outside the more central jurisdictions, but by far the most job growth is in Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George’s, and DC, plus a lot in Loudoun and Arlington, in this forecast. Again, people commuting from so far away to these jobs is not ideal, but adding even more housing will reduce the sprawl pressure.
It’s not impossible
The region can certainly accommodate these new people. As Bowser noted, DC once had that many people, though this was in an era when people lived in much smaller spaces and had larger families. The bigger obstacle is the widespread opposition to nearly any growth anywhere.
If that continues, displacement will increase and new jobs and housing will get pushed to the edges of the region. The report suggests, however, that it’s not just poor workers who will lose out: it’s seniors. Baby boomers will retire in great numbers and without jobs, and then make up many of the lower-income households.
DC and the other jurisdictions in the region will need to proactively plan for where this new housing can go, and get community buy-in ahead of time, to make it possible to build the housing the region needs.