Former Market Building, Shepherdstown, West Virginia, United States by Billy Wilson licensed under Creative Commons.

Silver Line-themed mocktails were slinging in November 2022 at the Ashburn terminus’ ribbon cutting hosted by Loudoun Station, an adjacent transit-oriented development. Developers and dignitaries fêted a paradigm shift for the region: TOD in the exurbs. But only 27 miles from the end of the Silver Line in Jefferson County, West Virginia, it was a non-event.

Jefferson County has not put in place any new housing policy related to the new Metro extension, while Loudoun County has been planning for this moment for decades. It has displacement mitigation mechanisms in the works, as well as at least one initiative to promote what Board of Supervisors Chair Phyllis Randall is careful to call “attainable” housing — homes priced for people making zero to 30% of AMI all the way up to workforce housing — in its ADU program. HUD statistics place Loudoun County’s AMI at $142,300.

Not so in Jefferson County, located on the outermost end of the Eastern Panhandle. The county’s population growth and density make it an anomaly. Its population of 57,701, as of the 2020 census, is almost double what it was in 1990 — all the more remarkable since West Virginia is the only state whose population declined by more than a tenth of a percent in the same period.

This growth doesn’t necessarily follow a Silver Line-specific timeline. Developers secured building permits left and right during the early 2000s real estate market’s go-go days, but after the 2008 financial crisis, shovel-ready projects froze for over a decade. The pandemic exodus from urban centers and Silver Line extension nearing completion prompted developers to dust off those permits — fast, according to Charles Town Councilmember Elizabeth Ricketts.

“This led to developers restarting many previously on-hold housing development projects and a dramatic increase in home prices,” said Ricketts. In 2020, Charles Town processed 223 building permits, which jumped to 787 permits in 2022.

Silver Line now extends to Ashburn, 27 miles away from West Virginia’s Jefferson County by Rob Pegoraro licensed under Creative Commons.

Debate over whether services, amenities can keep pace with projected growth

Dennis Jarvis II, executive director of the Jefferson County Development Authority, is thrilled to see its “aggressive economic development program” run hot. During his two years in the role, Jarvis said Jefferson County has attracted $18 million in outside investment for its agriculture and manufacturing sectors. He believes that a Silver Line boom is manageable, and noted that this year’s 787 residential permit applications were on par with pre-2008 numbers.

“I don’t think [the Silver Line is] gonna change the character of the community at all, actually,” Jarvis said. “If we didn’t have the mechanism of the planning/zoning facet, it could be unrestricted growth, and we can see what that would lead to. So I think we’ve got control. I really do.”

Not everyone agrees. Ricketts attends meetings of the Eastern Panhandle Transit Authority (EPTA) — the agency that will be running commuter buses from Jefferson County to the new stop in Ashburn, Virginia. She doubts that the county is ready for a wave of new residents, citing a lack of amenities beyond the EPTA service.

“I am certainly concerned that we are allowing far more housing development in Jefferson County than commercial and service amenities can keep up with,” Ricketts explained. “We hear frequently that ‘no one wants to build commercial’ and yet we are allowing large-scale residential growth and those residents will need places to shop, eat, and receive services.”

Ricketts says that the local leaders who came before her failed to brace the region for growth, even though it was inevitable. Washington’s westward sprawl has been underway since there was first talk of a Silver Line, which the Dulles Corridor Metrorail Project’s website says began in the 1950s.

“I like to say that the Silver Line Metro extension is kind of like the worst best thing to happen to Jefferson County in a long time,” Ricketts said. “I say that because it’s going to bring growth and unfortunately, we aren’t prepared for it.”

Elizabeth Ricketts (left) and Jeff Hynes (right) used with permission.

“Take me home, down country roads”

DC denizens know Jefferson County for caving, whitewater rafting, gambling, and McMansions on the cheap. Its median household income is $86,711 versus $156,821 in neighboring Loudoun County, where the median value of owner-occupied housing units is $292,400 higher. As a representative of a burgeoning bedroom community, Ricketts worries that the Silver Line will make it more lucrative to capitalize on its low taxes, lower-cost housing, and proximity to high-paying jobs outside of Jefferson County, which could result in price hikes.

Workers in restaurants, hotels, and other industries catering to day-trippers are already commuting from adjacent Berkeley County, Ricketts said. As prices rise, she fears the county’s lowest income residents will be pushed out “due to a lack of variety in housing supply,” that is, housing that they can afford. The cost of housing in Jefferson County increased by 11.1% in the past year alone, according to online real estate agency Redfin.

“I think a lot more we’re going to see people commuting from Morgan and Berkeley counties to take those jobs here in Jefferson County because the housing prices and the housing availability have just changed so much in the last couple years” Ricketts said. “My fear is that we’re going to lose some of our community character and we’re going to just have all of these houses built, and we’re not going to be building new commercial areas or new downtown centers, and we’re just going to be experiencing urban sprawl.”

Image courtesy of The WV Independent Observer used with permission.

There are over 6,500 approved but vacant lots in unincorporated areas in the county, The Observer reported. Including proposals from the past two years in the county and Charles Town city limits — the Huntfield development alone adds up to 3,200 units — that equals over 10,000 lots set for new housing. While permitting from the past few years has shown a sharp increase in multifamily homes (see graph above), the bulk of the approved housing stock is still single family.

Councilmember Jeff Hynes, who lives in Huntfield and sits on the Planning Commission, looks at this positively.

“If you have a right to build, we’re going to try to make sure that you follow our rules,” Hynes said. “So if we’re thinking you’re going to add traffic to our roads, obviously the state’s going to require a traffic study and you’re gonna have to prove that you can mitigate that traffic. But ultimately, in my opinion, and I think most on the Planning Commission’s opinion, is if you’re working within the confines of our ordinances and our zoning, you’re a welcome project.”

However, Ricketts believes that the city’s support for multifamily zoning and ADUs — key mechanisms to foster affordable housing — is lacking. These projects typically require variance requests from Charles Town’s Board of Zoning Appeals and Planning Commission. Of the multifamily dwellings available and underway in Charles Town, Ricketts is concerned that starting rents are unaffordable.

“The Charles Town City Council has discussed measures to promote affordable housing, but there has been no meaningful action yet taken,” Ricketts said, though what measures have been discussed is not clear. She added that there is consensus on the Council that something has to be done, “but we lack the staff time and resources to pursue meaningful change. The desire to provide affordable housing is there, but the knowledge of how to make that a reality is lacking.”

No. 1635 West Washington Street, Bolivar, West Virginia, United States by Billy Wilson licensed under Creative Commons.

How can Jefferson County prepare?

Increasing demand, spurred by the Silver Line and other factors, looks set to continue for now in Jefferson County, and to continue to drive up the cost of living. Jarvis believes it’s up to the markets to determine the price point for housing, and by extension, the types developers build. He doesn’t see a role for government — for example, in promoting multifamily units — beyond generally fostering economic growth.

Hynes, however, thinks something more has to be done to generate affordable housing, since the county and city “don’t really have any rules” requiring developers to build it. The City Council recently asked the Planning Commission to explore options within existing zoning ordinances, which Hynes thinks are unlikely to change due to lack of political will. For Hynes, the only palatable way toward affordability is on the supply side: a variety of housing and more of it.

“I don’t know that our electorate is at a point where they would support government intervention of that magnitude. I think the discomfort with the government telling businesses you must price your buildings at this price point. I don’t know if the people who are active in local politics even would be down for that,” Hynes said.

Ricketts also sees a path forward through a greater diversity of housing.

“We’re trying to push for things like affordable homes, home density, so not just single-family detached homes, but also can you put a certain percentage of apartments on your development property? I fear that change might not come as fast as the growth is coming, but it is something we’re exploring.”

Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth, agrees that Jefferson County needs thoughtful planning but doesn’t see the Silver Line as a sea change for West Virginia’s housing market. Commuters from Jefferson County headed to Fairfax and points east are “very likely to stay in their cars,” Schwartz said, and the pandemic and rise of telecommuting may have a bigger impact than the Metro extension. Still, Schwartz believes there’s more to be done to ensure equitable and sustainable growth.

“It comes down to whether we can have better planning in Jefferson County,” Schwartz said. “You should grow within your small town and gracefully expand those towns with greener streets and [greater] walkability.”