Safe streets advocates gathered at the Wilson building to memorialize Jim Pagels and demand action on April 16, 2021. Image by Conor Shaw used with permission.

Six years after Mayor Muriel Bowser committed DC to the goal of ensuring that “no lives are lost on our streets or at our intersections,” DC is on pace for its deadliest year of traffic violence in over a decade.

Earlier this month, Jim Pagels was riding a Capital Bikeshare on Massachusetts Avenue NW when he was struck from behind by a vehicle in a driver-initiated chain reaction crash and killed.

Jim’s tragic death, however, is no “accident.” It is part of a devastating, unmistakable, and unacceptable pattern that robs DC residents of cherished parents, children, partners, and neighbors. It came only five days after Brian Johnson was killed in Northeast DC, six days after Evelyn Troyah was killed in a hit-and-run on South Dakota Avenue, and eight days after 4 year-old Zy’aire Joshua was killed on Georgia Avenue. They were joined by eight previous deaths this year, including cyclist Armando Martinez-Ramos, hit by a shuttle bus in a crosswalk on Michigan Avenue.

After losing her son, Zy’aire’s mother said “I don’t think I’m ever going to get past this.” It is past time for Mayor Bowser and the District Department of Transportation (DDOT) to acknowledge the public safety emergency that vehicular violence represents and to start taking action actually capable of stopping it.

DC’s Vision Zero effort has failed

People of every age, from all walks of life, using any form of transportation are more vulnerable today than they were when Mayor Bowser launched Vision Zero six years ago. When the campaign was announced, DC had experienced 26 fatalities on our streets the previous year. The Mayor was unambiguously clear in her goal: these deaths were unacceptable and, more importantly, preventable. “By 2024 we will do everything in our power to eliminate transportation fatalities or serious injuries.”

The 2016 report set an explicit target. To get to zero deaths on schedule, the District needed to see a 35% reduction every year. But the reality is that DC is not making any progress. Instead, things have gotten steadily worse: 37 people were killed last year, a 40% increase over the 2015 baseline.

Chart by the authors. Data from DC Vision Zero Dashboard

Remember that traffic deaths reflect only a fraction of the true human cost of vehicular violence. In addition to the 196 deaths since 2015, DC has seen 1,803 major injuries and 31,011 minor injuries in that same time period — and those are only the reported ones.

That’s not just pedestrians and cyclists, 63% of those major injuries were car drivers and passengers. This isn’t a story of drivers vs. pedestrians/cyclists: it’s reckless drivers and dangerous streets vs. everyone. Even for those so far unscathed by traffic violence, the ever-present threat of death or injury prevents all of us from enjoying moments that should be a routine part of life in a city like throwing a football in the street or walking a child home from school.

DC’s Vision Zero reported statistics since 2015. Source: DDOT Vision Zero Data

It’s also crucial to acknowledge that 2021’s surge of traffic violence is coming at the same time a sharp rise in deadly shootings has pushed DC’s homicide count to 58 on the year already, disproportionately affecting Black residents. These twin crises are tied by the ways they tear at the fabric of our communities and rob residents of the ability to use and enjoy our city without fear.

We can no longer treat DC’s first attempt at Vision Zero as a strategy that needs more time to take hold. It is a categorical failure, an empty executive promise that is not achieving any results.

It is time to hold Mayor Bowser and DDOT to a higher standard

The central problem with our Vision Zero campaign goes back to the very start: the strategy the city laid out was far too modest in scope to achieve what it set out to do.

The key principle of the Vision Zero philosophy is that humans make mistakes and no amount of education or enforcement will eliminate that. The approach’s key insight is to focus most specifically on the road itself, not the road user, to ensure those inevitable mistakes don’t cost someone’s life or health.

When you study the deaths we’ve experienced in DC and across the country, the danger pattern is simple: streets designed to prioritize vehicle speed and volume are the primary threat, especially given the steady increase in the size and destructive capacity of vehicles and more drivers distracted by cell phones. The right Vision Zero plan would simply reverse engineer this formula: we need to reduce or eliminate opportunities for drivers to hit anything at all, and ensure that if they do, it happens at far slower speeds.

But reviewing DC’s original Vision Zero action plan, it’s clear that approach hadn’t sunk in when it was drafted. The report is heavy on data collection, education and some promises of increased enforcement, but woefully light on the kinds of engineering changes that would have the biggest impact. The plan’s strategy for the dozens of deadly arterials that account for a huge share of deaths was to pilot a 25 mph speed limit on just two of them; it set out to install only five miles of protected bicycle infrastructure and proposed no open streets corridors for pedestrians. Better implementation of the positive small steps that were planned would also be nice, but there’s little reason to believe even perfect execution would have made a meaningful difference.

We reached out to the Mayor’s office and DDOT for comment about the Vision Zero plan and did not receive a response by press time.

DC’s Vision Zero Action Plan focused on four categories of solutions, but gave short shrift to the engineering one that matters most.

There’s no escaping how we got here. The key difference between what we tried and what is working in other cities is the perceived political palatability of the solutions. Slowing drivers down means, well, slowing drivers down, something many don’t take too kindly to. To avoid that backlash, it’s clear the city decided to try almost anything else first. But if we want results, “everything in our power” cannot mean “everything in our power that won’t upset drivers too much.” It’s exactly that politically conservative approach that has proved completely inadequate in preventing people’s deaths on the District’s roads.

Reversing the trend involves adopting a series of strategies that data shows will protect lives, increase mobility, and achieve greater equity in transportation. (We’ve got a few ideas here: look out for our follow-up post tomorrow laying them out). But the policy details won’t matter if there’s no political will to implement them. That responsibility falls on all of our city’s elected officials — the DC Council has a role to play in legislating and oversight — but most of the need is for a clearly articulated new vision for the city and the leadership to have relevant agencies prioritize and implement it, and that falls squarely on Mayor Bowser’s shoulders.

If she is still committed to the vision she laid out six years ago, she can stop this trend and put us back on track to zero deaths. But it has to start with an honest reckoning of what’s not working, and the courage to truly meet the moment.

Conor Shaw is an attorney at a nonpartisan ethics watchdog. Conor grew up on Capitol Hill and now lives in Eckington, where he is president of the Eckington Civic Association. Conor wants our streets to be safer for all—and especially cyclists and pedestrians; our local businesses to thrive; and our housing policies to promote affordability, diversity and yes—density. 

Nick Sementelli is a 17-year DC resident who lives in Ward 5. In his day job, he works as a digital strategist for progressive political campaigns and advocacy groups. Outside of the office, you can find him on the soccer field or at Nats Park. He currently serves on GGWash's Board of Directors.