Metro says it will run more trains while the Pope is here, but that’d take a miracle

WMATA announced that it will have more train cars in service than usual for the pope’s trip to DC this week, and that peak-level service will last for longer. But adding cars in one part of the system means pulling them from elsewhere, which could mean more delays and breakdowns.

At a press conference announcing the service changes, WMATA said it would have 978 rail cars in service during the pope’s visit, 24 more than on a regular day. But earlier this month and in reference to restoring the system to normal service after reducing it this summer, Rob Troup, WMATA’s Deputy General Manager for Operations, said the agency would not have the 954 cars that it needs for peak service.

The number of train cars in use on Mondays and Fridays had been previously reduced during the summer to allow for more maintenance time. The system has recently been running with 900-920 cars in service, short of full service and not close to what WMATA says it will have this week.

If WMATA is to pull in additional rail cars for more service, it might have to pull cars that otherwise would be undergoing routine repairs, meaning an increased likelihood of trains breaking. Door and brake problems are two issues that plague WMATA, and it is critical the cars receive maintenance time in order to find the root causes of these problems.

The shortage of rail cars isn’t new

For at least the past three months, WMATA has been short on the number of cars it needs for full service. This has led to increased delays and train cancellations. On-time performance has fallen, and customer satisfaction is down.

Cars have been missing due to the simple fact that the system is too big for the amount of equipment WMATA currently has. On 85% of weekdays in May and 77% in June, WMATA didn’t have enough cars to run normal service. On an average day in July, WMATA was missing 7% of its service fleet, 66 cars short of what’s required.

The number of missing rail cars in July equates to 80% of the number of cars the Blue Line needs during peak service hours.

With fewer cars than needed, WMATA has fewer options

Two 8-car 7000-series trains are currently used for WMATA employee training, so it is possible that they may pull these 16 cars into service. But, even with these cars, WMATA would still be only running with around 936 cars (assuming they have 920 cars in service on average). 936 is short of the 954 needed for a regular day, and is certainly short of the 978 they say they will have for the Papal visit.

Any single missing train during service increases how long people wait in stations, how crowded the trains are, and how long it takes to get to their destination, all of which are important when someone like the pope comes to town.

According to a statement from WMATA, “Riders should note that it is not possible to add trains or cars during rush hours, as every available car is already being used for service.”

This appears to mean that while there may be 978 rail cars in service, there will not be 978 rail cars in service at any single time. The cars’ time in use will be spread throughout the day. This may mean that cars are cycled on and off for parts of the day, or possibly also that there are additional “gap” trains ready to take over if/when one breaks down.

Riders will be lucky if WMATA were to run with 954 cars as the schedule currently promises. At this point in time, we really are waiting on the 7000-series cars to make all the difference.