The Washington Nationals clinched the National League East last night while playing at their ballpark just a few steps from Metro. Many Nats fans avail themselves of transit. I wondered where fans go by train after the games, and WMATA provided the data for a few evening games.


Circles have area proportional to the numbers of trips.



The data set includes 10 evening games spread from April to August. Half of the games were during the week, and the other half were on Fridays or Saturdays. I looked at the number of boardings at Navy Yard starting in the same hour as the last pitch and going through system closing.

The 10 busiest destinations are a mix of urban and suburban stations:

Top 10 destination stations
Where fans go after Nats games
RankStationAverage trips
1Gallery Place587.20
2Vienna518.56
3Pentagon City404.70
4Shady Grove320.33
5Greenbelt306.10
RankStationAverage trips
6Franconia-Springfield297.89
7U Street292.20
8Dupont Circle290.20
9Columbia Heights277.90
10Crystal City268.00


The presence of 4 end-of-line stations suggests that many riders are headed home to the farther-out suburbs directly after their games. The high ranking of Dupont Circle, Columbia Heights, and Crystal City could signify the neighborhoods where more urban fans tend to live, or perhaps where they go for entertainment after the game.

Gallery Place’s top ranking is a little surprising. It’s probably up there because many fans are headed for a drink after game’s end. Looking at the individual games, Gallery Place ranks in 1st place in half of the games in the data set. It also ranks 2nd twice, and 3rd, 4th, and 8th once each.

Is there an east-west divide?


Photo by Elvert Barnes on Flickr.

The region often talks about an east-west divide between jobs and housing. The eastern side of the region doesn’t have many jobs, resulting in many long commutes toward Montgomery County or Northern Virginia.

It appears there might also be an east-west baseball enthusiasm gap.

Other than Greenbelt (#5) and Branch Avenue (#11), few stations on the east side of the region have much ridership following Nats games. Anacostia (#19), New Carrollton (#26), College Park (#32), and Suitland (#36) are the only other east-side stations that fall in the top half of destinations.

On the other hand, 6 east-side stations are in the bottom 10. And the other 4 in the bottom 10 are stations in downtown DC.

Bottom 10 destination stations
Where fewer fans go after Nats games
RankStationAverage trips
75Capitol Heights13.10
76Federal Triangle12.80
77Landover12.10
78Morgan Blvd11.80
79Cheverly10.40
RankStationAverage trips
80Stadium/Armory10.30
81Federal Ctr SW8.50
82Smithsonian8.40
83Judiciary Square6.30
84Deanwood6.00


It’s also possible that this effect comes from the data set only looking at riders who enter at Navy Yard, not at Capitol South and Eastern Market. A fan going to New Carrollton will save a lot of time by walking to Capitol South for the Orange Line, but that trip is not counted; it only is if that fan rode from Navy Yard to L’Enfant Plaza and transferred.

Notes on methodology

The data capture everyone who enters the system after a Nats game, not simply Nats fans.  It also includes stadium employees and anyone else who happened to board the Metro at Navy Yard after the game ended.

Because Metro often closes parts of lines on weekends, some stations received odd rankings on certain dates. To help adjust for this, the numbers in this post reflect adjusted averages. I excluded any station that was downstream from a closure on the date of a game, or any station that was closed for work. I also excluded the last station before the closure because that station generally saw much higher-than-normal ridership.

For example, on Friday, July 20, the Red Line was closed between Friendship Heights and Grosvenor starting at 10 pm. On that date, Friendship Heights (which ranks 30th overall) came in first. Shady Grove, which is almost always in the top 10, came in 52nd. These numbers clearly are an artifact of temporary service patterns instead of a trend.

The adjusted average has the same top 10 stations as the unadjusted average, though the order is different. The stations in 4th, 5th, and 6th place are affected because of closures.

This analysis also only looked at traffic from Navy Yard, even though we know that many Nats fans walk or take other transit to meet the Orange Line at Capitol South or Eastern Market. At Navy Yard, we can safely assume the vast majority of people entering right after the game are Nats fans.  In contrast, that assumption probably won’t hold as strongly for the Orange Line stations.

Here’s the full list, shown ranked by the (adjusted) average number of passengers riding there from Navy Yard over all 10 games:

Destination stations
Where fans go after Nats games
RankStation
1Gallery Place
2Vienna
3Pentagon City
4Shady Grove
5Greenbelt
6Franconia-Springfield
7U Street
8Dupont Circle
9Columbia Heights
10Crystal City
11Branch Avenue
12Rosslyn
13Foggy Bottom
14Huntington
15Ballston
16L’Enfant Plaza
17West Falls Church
18Bethesda
19Anacostia
20King Street
21East Falls Church
22Mount Vernon Square
23Court House
24Grosvenor
25Woodley Park
26New Carrollton
27Silver Spring
28Fort Totten
29Clarendon
30Friendship Heights
31Dunn Loring
32College Park
33Eisenhower Avenue
34Glenmont
35Archives
36Suitland
37Braddock Road
38McPherson Square
39Tenleytown
40Union Station
41Farragut North
42Georgia Avenue
RankStation
43Van Ness
44Metro Center
45Cleveland Park
46Virginia Square
47Pentagon
48Shaw
49Rockville
50Southern Avenue
51Forest Glen
52Farragut West
53Van Dorn Street
54Prince George’s Plaza
55NoMa
56Naylor Road
57Twinbrook
58Takoma
59White Flint
60Wheaton
61West Hyattsville
62Rhode Island Avenue
63Brookland
64Largo
65Congress Heights
66Waterfront
67Medical Center
68Benning Road
69National Airport
70Eastern Market
71Potomac Avenue
72Addison Road
73Minnesota Avenue
74Capitol South
75Capitol Heights
76Federal Triangle
77Landover
78Morgan Boulevard
79Cheverly
80Stadium/Armory
81Federal Center SW
82Smithsonian
83Judiciary Square
84Deanwood


Update: The original post showed circles with the diameter proportional to the number of trips, rather than the area. The map has now been updated.

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Matt Johnson has lived in the Washington area since 2007. He has a Master’s in Planning from the University of Maryland and a BS in Public Policy from Georgia Tech. He lives in Greenbelt. He’s a member of the American Institute of Certified Planners. He is a contract employee of the Montgomery County Department of Transportation. His views are his own and do not represent those of his employer.