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I'm arguing that increases in density won't have that much of an impact to the poor and middle class. They still won't be able to afford the urban core. Even if townhome prices dropped by 10% in Arlington, most of the poor/middle class won't be able to afford them.

It seems to me the argument that "increases in density won't have that much of an impact" because "poor and middle class people won't be able to buy in Arlington" misses the point. 

Population growth is going to continue. The competition for housing that's more accessible to the region's job centers is going to increase. In a world where we don't build denser, an even smaller percentage of the region's population would be able to afford them. And of course there'd be fewer units. So the region's poor and middle-class would be pushed even further to the periphery.

I feel a bit about congestion pricing in the core the same way I do about congestion pricing on I-66. It's probably one of the few things that might address problems facing suburban car commuters, but you can lead a horse to water, etc... It'd be much easier politically to just continue urban traffic-calming measures and repurpose lanes for buses and streetcars. As the population of DC gets more urban that's inevitable, and the end-game is total gridlock downtown.