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ArlingtonFlyer on September 21, 2018 at 1:10 pm

"understanding of statistical probability would indicate that it is highly improbable that this arrest rate actually correlated with the actual commission of fare evasion throughout an entire regional transit system."

Sorry that's not how probability works. That would only work if you believed (and had data!) that all people are likely to commit all types of crime regardless of gender, race, age or socioeconomic status. However, we know that's not true.

Using your version of statistical probability, you'd never believe that the majority of murders/rapes (nearly 90%) are committed by men. But in reality, it's true. No one is writing that there are "stark gender disparities" in how many men are arrested for murder.  

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